Latest price: 3299.7. Change in price: 19.44. Change in percentage: 0.59%. Trading volume: 596 million lots. Transaction volume: 677.3 billion. Turnover rate: 1.28%. Shanghai Composite Index market?? Leading gainers?? Capital flow of the market?? 7*24-hour news?? Enter the Shanghai Composite Index bar. Leading industries: 1. Photovoltaic equipment. Increase: 9.01%. Number of rising stocks: 76. Number of falling stocks: 0.
Leading gainer: TCL Zhonghuan. Increase: 10.04%. 2. Batteries. Increase: 6.33%. Number of rising stocks: 74. Number of falling stocks: 1. Leading gainer: Fengyuan Co.,Ltd. Increase: 10.01%. CITIC Securities: The bottoming process of A-shares is expected to accelerate, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to see a monthly-level repair. After the ‘risk management-style’ interest rate cut, the US dollar has entered an interest rate cut cycle. The initial cut of 50 basis points slightly exceeds expectations. While improving the RMB exchange rate expectations, it also enhances the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. It is expected that incremental policies will be intensified. The current bottoming process of A-shares with improved pricing efficiency is expected to accelerate. For Hong Kong stocks whose prices have fully reflected pessimistic expectations, their rebound is expected to continue and become a monthly-level repair market. First of all, starting the interest rate cut cycle with a reduction of 50 basis points is the result of the Federal Reserve taking into account both expectation management and risk response. Under the ‘discretionary’ approach centered on the unemployment rate, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will have two more interest rate cuts of 25 basis points within the year. Secondly, the US dollar interest rate cut significantly improves the RMB exchange rate expectations and enhances the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. Domestic policy expectations fluctuate greatly, and the effect of existing policies and the intensification of incremental policies still need to be observed. Finally, after the US dollar enters the interest rate cut cycle, it is beneficial to the valuation of global risk assets. Hong Kong stocks that have fully reflected pessimistic expectations still have significant cost-effectiveness at present, and their recent rebound is expected to continue and become a monthly-level repair market. The RMB exchange rate expectations have significantly improved, and it is expected that incremental policies will be intensified. The bottoming process of A-shares with improved pricing efficiency is also expected to accelerate. However, we still need to patiently wait for the market inflection point signal. At present, the two main lines of dividends and going overseas are still used as the base positions. CITIC Construction Investment: The bottom of A-shares is approaching. It is not advisable to be bearish at present. The 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has landed, and the magnitude slightly exceeds market expectations. The risk of a hard landing of the US economy has decreased, and China’s policy space has further improved. The Hong Kong stock market benefits more directly from the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Coupled with attractive valuations, it has been relatively strong recently. The conditions for the sentiment bottom and valuation bottom of the A-share market have basically been met. If the policy bottom is further confirmed, the market will form a resonance counterattack signal. It is not advisable to be bearish at present. We should be ready at all times. In addition, it should be noted that according to the historical laws of A-shares, the market style in the fourth quarter has more obvious differentiated characteristics compared with the first three quarters. Subsequently, potential high-elasticity varieties should be focused on.Industry Focus: Internet, military industry, home appliances, automobiles, energy storage, etc.
Huatai Securities: The bottom pattern is emerging. Emerging from the bottom may still require patience. Last week, A-shares rebounded slightly. Judging from the leading rising varieties and typical capital dynamics, it may be mainly driven by the 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which promotes the expectation of domestic policy easing. Investors are concerned about whether the time and space of this round of adjustment are in place. In terms of space, the bottom pattern of A-shares is emerging. The margin trading balance shows signs of stabilization, the dividend cost-effectiveness improves, and the previously strong varieties stopped falling last week. The contrarian funds see an inflection point – the recent net increase in industrial capital holdings has turned positive. In terms of time, the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve only provides favorable conditions, and a sustained rebound may still require patience. Internally, the rhythm/intensity/effect of fiscal and monetary policies in providing/stimulating effective demand remains to be observed. Externally, the US dollar and oil prices are near support levels. Whether they can further decompress is faced with uncertainties such as the general election. Pay attention to the corresponding varieties of the following configuration clues – AH premium convergence, non-financial A50, active inventory replenishment and sustainability, and interest rate cut beneficiaries. Haitong Securities: The central axis of A-share indexes is expected to be lifted. Recently, A-shares have continued the consolidation trend since late May. The points of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index are close to the lows in early February this year. Many investors are concerned about whether the current A-shares are close to a phased bottom. In this regard, from the perspective of indexes and industries, broad-based indexes are close to the 2/5 lows, and valuations and risk premiums are at historical bottoms. Nearly half of the industries’ valuations have hit new lows since the beginning of the year, erasing all the gains since 2/5. In addition, the historical market bottoming sequence is high-dividend stocks > broad-based indexes > heavily held stocks by funds. The current adjustment of the high-dividend sector has been significant. Subsequent observations are needed to see if it can stabilize. The overseas liquidity environment has improved, and domestic policies may be imminent. The resonance of positive internal and external factors is expected to push up the central axis of the stock market. Structurally, attach importance to high-end manufacturing with superior performance. China Merchants Securities: The market performance around the National Day usually shows a certain calendar effect. Specifically, before the National Day, market trading is relatively light, and some funds flow out due to risk aversion needs, resulting in poor market performance. However, after the National Day, market risk appetite improves, and major indexes often rebound. Judging from the performance of A-shares one week after the National Day in the past ten years, the probability of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indexes rising is all over 50%. According to data statistics since 2007, the probability of the Wind All A Index rising in the five trading days after the National Day is 82%. Judging from the industry performance after the National Day in the past ten years, the probability of rising in first-level industries in the five trading days after the National Day is generally above 50%. Among them, the industries with high rising probabilities are concentrated in industries such as automobiles, non-ferrous metals, textile and apparel, light industry manufacturing, and biomedicine. Among them, the probabilities of automobiles and biomedicine rising are still relatively high in two weeks and one month after the National Day.Shenwan Hongyuan: Hong Kong stocks are becoming a market consensus, benefiting more from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, with cost-effectiveness and capital supply and demand advantages being concentrated in the short term. The judgment that high dividend allocation during pullbacks is a superior relative return is being verified. To stabilize the capital market expectations, policies need to be effective with a focus on both total output and style balance.
Insurance funds increasing their allocation of high dividends at a cost-effective position is the correct long-term strategy. Based on the second-quarter report clues, we recommend new energy power batteries, power grid equipment, wind power, innovative drugs, and insurance. Within 2024, sci-tech innovation is the high-elasticity direction in rebounds. Bank of China Securities: After the window period, A-shares are expected to converge with Hong Kong stocks. As the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations are better than expected, the impact of monetary easing on A-shares may weaken. The current domestic economic blockage mainly comes from the transmission from money to credit, and whether subsequent demand can stabilize depends more on the advancement of fiscal policies. Considering the time needed for stable growth policies to take effect, the policy adjustment window period may be between September and October; combined with the statements of relevant departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission this week, further attention is needed on the implementation of domestic stable growth policies. The current period is still a window period for Hong Kong stocks to have an advantage. In the short term, it is still believed that a more optimistic tactical approach is needed, while strategically waiting for policy implementation rather than expectations. The window period for Hong Kong stocks to continue to have an advantage over A-shares is still open, and after the window period, A-shares are expected to converge with Hong Kong stocks. Minsheng Securities: After the rebound, returning to the main line of physical assets. The market rebound came as expected. Compared to entangling in the reversal at the transaction level or the historical experience of the RMB’s phased appreciation, the tailwind of physical assets is the opportunity that should be grasped at present. After experiencing ‘headwinds’ and ‘shrinkage’, the resilience of domestic physical consumption is once again confirmed, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts will further promote the tailwind of physical consumption, with the ‘lost ground’ in the fields of resources and dividends expected to be gradually ‘recaptured’. Dongwu Securities: A-shares should switch to odds thinking. The current market significantly underestimates the external factor of the global liquidity turning point, which has expectations and trading space. The overseas liquidity turning point has already appeared. With the gradual advancement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut process, the domestic fundamentals are expected to improve based on the repair of external demand. At this stage, A-shares should switch to odds thinking and filter opportunities from four perspectives: (1) areas where stock prices are oversold but fundamentals/fundamental expectations are marginally improving; (2) dollar interest rate-sensitive assets; (3) high-growth directions; (4) industries with strengthened trends or policy expectations. Caitong Securities: Seize the friendly window of interest rate cuts. On September 18, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, pushing the global market from a macro uncertainty window to a macro-friendly window: the path of global risk-free interest rates is clear, and the global economy is expected to recover faster under the impetus of unconventional interest rate cuts.Returning to the domestic market, the policy for stable growth in domestic demand continues, the monetary policy space is opened up, and the real estate sector becomes more relaxed. Market sentiment is expected to recover from its low point. Currently, the main focus is on interest rate reduction strategies, which benefit assets that benefit from the decline in risk-free interest rates, including gold, emerging markets (especially growth), and assets that align with the economic cycle.
Additionally, attention is advised on the ‘US stocks – A-shares mapping’ strategy. In the first half of this year, some US stocks can guide the performance of A-share stocks, involving the US real estate chain, construction machinery chain, oil service chain, shipping chain, AI computing power chain, consumer electronics chain, as well as oil, copper, oil transportation, innovative drugs, semiconductors, and memory chips, etc. Overseas leading stocks in each chain can be monitored as investment signals.