Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union starting from June 1st. Central bank governors from the US, Europe, and Japan made speeches. The 39th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting took place. China announced May PMI and April industrial enterprise profit data. Horizon Robotics was included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The US released the revised Q1 GDP growth rate, the three major economies of the Eurozone announced May CPI, and India announced Q1 GDP growth.
A summary of significant financial events from May 26th to June 1st, all times are in Beijing time: This week’s focus includes Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st, the Federal Reserve’s release of the May monetary policy meeting minutes, the US release of April PCE price index, speeches by central bank governors from the US, Europe, and Japan, Nvidia’s latest financial report, the ASCO annual meeting, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and Xiaomi’s Q1 financial reports, and the 39th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting. Additionally, China announced May PMI and April industrial enterprise profit data, Horizon Robotics was included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the US released the revised Q1 GDP growth rate, the three major economies of the Eurozone announced May CPI, and India announced Q1 GDP growth.Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on EU
Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union starting from June 1st. According to CCTV News, on Friday, May 23rd, local time, US President Trump stated on social media that he suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st. This declaration not only broke the expectation of a 90-day ‘buffer period’ but also put the already difficult US-EU trade negotiations at risk of collapse. Analysts believe that the Trump administration views tariff negotiations as a means to pressure competitors and force concessions, while the EU behaves as if dealing with allies, consistently following established global trade rules in negotiations with the US, which is the main reason for the slow progress. However, if the 50% tariff really takes effect and continues after June 1st, it would be a devastating blow to the EU.
China’s May PMI
On Saturday (May 31st), the National Bureau of Statistics announced China’s official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI data for May. Last month’s data showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in April, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 50. 4. The National Bureau of Statistics stated that the manufacturing PMI fell below the boom-bust line due to the high base formed by rapid growth in manufacturing, coupled with dramatic changes in the external environment. Despite the April manufacturing PMI falling below the boom-bust line, high-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, manufacturing enterprises mainly focused on domestic sales maintained overall stable production and operations, and corporate expectations remained optimistic.
Mingming, Chief Economist at CITIC Securities, believes that under the intensification of external disturbances, the new export orders and new orders index of the manufacturing industry face the risk of continuous decline. Policymakers can stabilize people’s livelihoods and employment by boosting domestic demand, improving the business environment for companies, and promoting the sustainable development of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained his stance of not being in a hurry to cut interest rates. When asked about the expectation of two interest rate cuts in March, Powell stated that it is too early to predict and that we must wait until June. The minutes of this meeting recorded the FOMC’s detailed views on monetary policy, providing clues for future interest rate policy trends. Economists generally believe that tariffs have little impact on April’s price data, but the impact of trade policy is expected to become more apparent next month at the earliest. If OPEC+ continues to advance plans to restore production, the global oil supply surplus will further intensify, and the global oil market will face a supply surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day by 2025. Nvidia’s financial report: Can the AI hegemon continue to defend its glory? On Wednesday (May 28th), Nvidia will announce its financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026 after the US stock market closes. The median forecast by Bloomberg economists shows that Nvidia’s Q1 revenue is expected to be $43.274 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, with adjusted net profit of $22.26 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.886, mainly due to the mass production of Blackwell architecture GPUs and the increase in H200 delivery volume. Last quarter’s financial report showed that Nvidia’s Q4 revenue reached a historical high of $39. 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 78%; net profit was $22.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 80%, with Blackwell product revenue exceeding expectations to reach $11 billion. On Tuesday (May 27th), Pinduoduo announced its financial results for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2025. Institutions expect Pinduoduo to achieve a total operating income of 103.368 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 19. 07%, with expected earnings per share of 17.107 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.77%. The core focus of this quarter’s financial report remains the growth of GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) and user activity data. Citigroup analysis points out that according to an online consumer survey conducted recently on about 2,500 Chinese consumers, most respondents indicated that their financial situation is good, and they expect to increase consumption expenditure in the next 12 months, with 63% of respondents shopping several times a week and about 49% shopping between 6 to 10 times a month. Recently, there have been reports that Temu has significantly reduced its online advertising spending in the United States since April, and investors are concerned whether this will have a positive impact on Temu’s losses starting from the second quarter.
In addition, how Temu addresses changes in tariffs for small goods, its differentiated competitive advantages, and future revenue prospects are also focal points of interest. On Tuesday (May 27th), Xiaomi Group released its financial report for Q1 of the fiscal year 2025. Institutions widely forecast that Xiaomi’s Q1 will see a year-on-year increase of 41.6% to 106.92 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit growing by 16.
1% year-on-year to 7.537 billion yuan, while the group’s gross margin is expected to decline by 1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter to 21.3%. Based on forecasts from some securities firms and investment banks, driven by national subsidies and the recovery of the mobile phone market, Xiaomi’s Q1 revenue is expected to surpass the 100 billion yuan mark for two consecutive quarters, with a year-on-year growth rate potentially exceeding 40%. In the first quarter, Xiaomi’s automotive division delivered 69,000 new vehicles, ranking fourth in the new force delivery list for that quarter, with the SU7 model delivering a total of 75,869 new vehicles, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter. On May 22nd, Xiaomi officially launched the Xiaomi YU7 model at its 15th-anniversary strategic new product launch, which is expected to hit the market in July. HuaXing Securities anticipates that Xiaomi Group will face a true test in the second half of this year, with the launch of Xiaomi YU7 and the investor day in June serving as significant catalysts. Other important data, meetings, and events include the release of the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revised value on Thursday (May 29th). Last month’s data showed that the U.S. Q1 GDP was -0. 3% quarter-on-quarter at an annual rate, expected to be -0.2%, with the previous value at 2.4%. This marks the first negative growth quarter since the first quarter of 2022. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the GDP data reflects the result of businesses importing goods on a large scale in advance to cope with the expected tariffs from Trump, and the decrease in government spending in the previous quarter also put pressure on GDP, mainly due to reduced defense spending. Attention should be paid to the direction and magnitude of changes in the revised value to observe the actual impact of tariffs on the economy. On Tuesday (May 27th), the U.S. released the growth rate of durable goods orders for April. Last month’s data showed that the U.S. durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month-on-month in March, the largest increase since July 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 2%, with the previous value revised from 1% to 0. 9%. Among them, capital goods orders stagnated, indicating that under the uncertainty of Trump’s government tariffs and tax policies, businesses have become more cautious. Bloomberg economists generally expect that the April durable goods orders will plummet from 9.2% to -8.2% month-on-month, and the core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and non-defense capital durable goods) growth rate, an important indicator of corporate equipment investment, will be revised from last month’s 0.India’s GDP growth rate edged up from 1% to 0.2%. On Friday (May 40th), India announced its Q1 GDP growth rate on a year-over-year basis. The median forecast from Bloomberg economists suggests that India’s Q1 GDP is expected to grow by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter. Many economists believe that India needs to maintain a GDP growth rate of around 8% to achieve Modi’s goal of becoming a developed nation by 2047, which marks the 100th anniversary of India’s independence. However, the Indian government only raised its growth forecast for the entire fiscal year ending in March by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5% on Friday.
The three major economies of the Eurozone released their May CPI data. On Tuesday (May 27th), France announced the preliminary May CPI growth rate, with an expected year-on-year increase of 0.9%, up from 0.8% the previous month. On Friday (May 30th), Germany and Italy are expected to report that Italy’s CPI growth rate will remain at 1.9% as the previous month, while Germany’s will slightly slow down from 2.2% to 2%. If the inflation data meets expectations, this will be the first time in eight months that the inflation rates of Germany, France, and Italy have simultaneously fallen below the ECB’s 2% inflation target. The robotics competition co-hosted by Smart Element and OpenDriveLab will officially start on Monday (May 26th). According to the introduction, this competition is based on Smart Element’s technical matrix and OpenDriveLab’s experience advantages. By opening up core infrastructure and innovative resources, it calls on global developers to break through the boundaries of embodied intelligence. Participants are encouraged to explore the infinite possibilities of artificial intelligence and robotics technology through the competition. Focusing on two tracks that test the robots’ fine operation capabilities in complex environments and the generation capabilities of world models in embodied scenarios, the cash prize pool reaches $60,000, with the champion receiving a single prize of $10,000. On Monday (May 26th), Horizon Robotics is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect after meeting the conditions. According to a report by CICC, Horizon Robotics has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index since its listing in October last year. With the additional requirements for different voting rights shares met at the end of May, namely being listed for six months and 20 trading days, Horizon Robotics is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect after meeting the conditions. Everbright Securities also stated that as of April 30th, Horizon Robotics meets the conditions for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The inclusion will bring more liquidity to the market, especially after the index adjustment following the lifting of restrictions. The southbound funds will bring more liquidity, and the company has been included in the Hang Seng Technology Index. With the free circulation of restricted shares, according to the Hang Seng Technology Index compilation rules, the company’s index weight will correspondingly increase, and ETF passive investment fund funds will bring more liquidity.On Thursday (May 29th), Huawei held the launch event for the S800 model. On May 21st, Huawei’s official terminal microblog announced that the launch event for the S800 would take place on May 30th at 19:30. According to previous introductions by Huawei, the S800 will be equipped with six major intelligent technologies, three of which are exclusive to the S800’s debut. On November 26th, at the Huawei Mate brand ceremony, the S800 was officially unveiled to the public, with an estimated price range of 1 to 1.
5 million. It is reported that the S800 will be equipped with six major intelligent technologies, including: the first-ever Tuling Longxing platform, an autonomous intelligent digital chassis platform; the first-ever Angel Seat active safety protection, an autonomous intelligent safety protection system; the first-ever Huawei Star River communication, an autonomous intelligent vehicle communication network; Hongmeng Alps cabin 2. 0, an autonomous intelligent purification cabin; Huawei Car Language System 2.0, an autonomous intelligent human-vehicle interaction; and Huawei Whale Battery 2.0. On Friday (May 30th), the 2025 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting will be held in Chicago, USA. The ASCO Annual Meeting is the largest and most influential international academic conference in oncology globally, attracting tens of thousands of experts and scholars from over 100 countries each year and is recognized as the most important oncology academic conference worldwide. Subscribe to weekly major events: Domestic events: Overseas events: Risk warning and disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not taken into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular situation. Responsibility for investment based on this information is at one’s own risk.